Section 04 / Store of Value
War Room
Live ·
Theater Active Briefing 24.05.2026

Gold vs Bitcoin

Two stores of value, one battleground. Sovereigns are stockpiling the ancient one at the fastest pace in modern history. The challenger crossed $100B in ETFs in 28 months. This War Room watches both — live prices, supply doctrine, vault holdings, and the share each holds of household wealth.

Gold · XAU/USD
Bitcoin · BTC/USD
Gold mkt cap
$31.8T
all above-ground gold
BTC mkt cap
Panel 01 · Price Theater

Decade of price action, side by side

Normalized 100 = start of selected window. Regime markers overlaid.

Window Mode
Panel 02 · Supply Doctrine

How much exists. How much will ever exist.

Stock-to-flow side by side. The asset with higher S2F is harder to dilute.

Gold

XAU
Above-ground stock
219,891 t
2025 mine output
3,672 t
Supply growth/yr
+1.67%
Stock-to-flow
59.9
Composition of above-ground gold
Jewellery97,149 t · 44%
Bars, coins, ETFs48,634 t · 22%
Central banks37,755 t · 17%
Industrial / other32,727 t · 15%

Bitcoin

BTC
Circulating supply
19.92M
Hard cap
21M
Supply growth/yr
+0.82%
Stock-to-flow
121.3
Issuance progress
Mined94.86%
Next halving
Block reward 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC · est. 26 Mar 2028
Stock-to-flow head-to-head — higher = harder money
Bitcoin121.3
Gold59.9
Silver22
Panel 03 · Exchange Rate

One Bitcoin buys how much gold?

The honest unit price between the two stores of value. A rising line means BTC is gaining on gold.

1 BTC buys
troy ounces of gold
1 oz of gold buys
bitcoin
1 kg of gold buys
bitcoin
Ounces of gold per 1 BTC · weekly
All-time peak
All-time low
vs 5Y avg
Converter
BTC
= oz gold · kg
=
= BTC · sats
=
Quick references
1 BTC · gold bar (400 oz London Good Delivery)
1 BTC · 1 kg gold bar
1 BTC · American Gold Eagle (1 oz)
All US gold reserves (8,133 t) BTC
Panel 04 · Sovereign Vaults

Central banks bought 863t of gold in 2025

Three straight years above 1,000t was the modern record. 2025 cooled — but still 82% above the 2010–2021 average.

Net central bank gold demand · tonnes per year
Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends FY2025
Top sovereign holders
Tonnes
Total official gold
~36,000 t
17.2% of all above-ground gold
2025 top buyer
Poland
102t added · 2× the runner-up
Sovereign BTC
~0.2M
Mostly US Strategic Reserve (seized assets) + El Salvador
Panel 05 · Household Front

$175.3T of US household wealth — and where it isn't

Federal Reserve Z.1 reports $175.3T in household net worth at end-2025. Both gold and bitcoin remain low single-digit allocations.

Share of US household net worth · $175.3T base
Gold (private holdings)0.83% · ~$1.45T
~10,500t in private US hands at $4,505/oz · jewellery, bars, coins, ETFs
Bitcoin (US-share estimate)0.88% · ~$1.54T
Spot ETFs $100B + retail self-custody · ~25% US share of global mkt cap
Real estate, equities, bonds, cash98.3%
If gold matched real estate
28× current allocation
If BTC went to 2% of net worth
+$1.96T inflow needed
Spot BTC ETF holdings · 21 May 2026
$100.1B
1,304,888 BTC · 6.21% of all bitcoin
Allocation simulator
Required inflow · gold
Required inflow · BTC
% of total above-ground gold needed
Panel 06 · Volatility & Correlation

Risk profile, head-to-head

Annualized realized volatility and 1-year return correlations. Lower vol = more "store-of-value" behavior.

Annualized realized volatility · %
1-year return correlation matrix
Gold 1Y vol
5Y max drawdown
BTC 1Y vol
5Y max drawdown
Gold·BTC corr
Diversification still works — they don't move together.
Panel 07 · Scoreboard

Twelve criteria. One verdict.

Each axis is scored 1–10. Hover or tap any row for the case file.

Total · Gold
Total · Bitcoin
Commander's verdict

Gold wins on track record, liquidity and sovereign adoption. Bitcoin wins on scarcity, portability and censorship resistance. The honest answer is they're complementary, not substitutes — one is the asset central banks already own, the other is the asset they don't yet.

Bull case

Gold

    Bear case
      Bull case

      Bitcoin

        Bear case